Xiao Han: Gold and silver may fluctuate considerably upward in H2 2025, with the resistance level for gold at $3,800 [Minor Metal Conference]

On June 12, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Main Forum co-hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Xiao Han, General Manager of Zhishui Investment Co., Ltd., shared insights on the theme "2025 Precious Metals Market Review and Future Outlook."

2025 Macro Monetary Environment

►US

ØThe US recorded a GDP growth rate of 2.8% in 2024, meeting market expectations.

ØUS economic growth began to slow down, inflation gradually pulled back, while financial environment risks remained.

ØKey 2025 influencing factors: US Fed monetary policy, tariffs, financial environment risks, and the Trump factor.

ØIMF forecasts US GDP growth at 1.8% for full-year 2025 and 1.7% for 2026.

►Eurozone

ØThe Eurozone achieved a GDP growth rate of 0.9% in 2024.

ØIt led the US in initiating interest rate cuts, with a faster pace of rate reductions.

ØEurozone economic recovery in 2025 may underperform expectations, primarily affected by the Ukraine conflict and tariffs.

ØIMF projects Eurozone GDP growth at 0.8% for full-year 2025 and 1.2% for 2026.

►China

ØChina's GDP grew by 5.0% in 2024.

ØMaintaining economic stability remains the top priority (real estate, investment, exchange rate).

2025 Price Influencing Factors

►Price Drivers

Gold and silver, the two traditional precious metals, generally move in tandem. Statistical data from the past decade shows their correlation coefficient reaches 0.939.

Impact: Where Will Precious Metal Prices Head?

US Fed economic policies remain the primary price driver!

Trump policies represent the biggest wildcard!

Price Influence Mechanism

Focus on US inflation and economy!

According to LSEG data, markets price in a 77% probability of the US Fed cutting rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting. Trump has repeatedly publicly urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, arguing the current economic environment requires looser monetary policy to stimulate growth.

He outlined relevant details of Trump's tariff policies.

Geopolitical Outlook:

His analysis incorporated US data including the S&P 500 Volatility Index and London spot gold.

ECB Monetary Policy:It is still necessary to guard against black swan events in the Eurozone.

Where is the recent influx of capital coming from?

It analyzed the precious metals market by integrating factors such as arbitrage, speculation, hedging, demand, and strategy.

In addition, it interpreted the factors influencing precious metals prices from the perspectives of precious metals demand, precious metals positions and open interest, precious metals hedging positions - gold, precious metals hedging positions - silver, and precious metals speculative positions.

Price Analysis

•The factors influencing precious metals prices in 2025 will primarily revolve around the US Fed's monetary policy.

•Considering a combination of fundamental and technical factors, it is expected that the precious metals market will experience considerable fluctuations with an upward bias in the second half of 2025. There is a higher probability of fluctuations in Q3, and a possible upward trend in Q4.

•In the second half of 2025, the upper resistance level for gold prices will be around $3,800/oz, and the lower support level will be around $3,000/oz.

•In the second half of 2025, the upper resistance level for silver prices will be around $38.0/oz, and the lower support level will be around $28.0/oz.

•In the second half of 2025, the price range for silver TD will be between 7,500 yuan/kg and 9,000 yuan/kg.

Investment Strategies

Hedging Strategies

•It is expected that metal prices will experience considerable fluctuations with an upward bias in 2025.

•For upstream enterprises in the precious metals and lead-zinc industry chains, those with mines may not need to hedge prices.

•For midstream enterprises and traders in the precious metals and lead-zinc industry chains, they can hedge by buying high and selling low to lock in profits and avoid risks associated with price fluctuations in the precious metals market.

•For downstream enterprises in the precious metals and lead-zinc industry chains, when facing shortages in raw material inventory, they can hedge by buying at appropriate prices to avoid losses from price increases.

Investment Strategies

Previous Strategies: Long-term speculative traders should continue to hold long positions established near $1,600/oz. Those below $2,200 can consider establishing long positions for medium to long-term investments. Medium to short-term investors should primarily trade with a bias towards considerable fluctuations with an upward bias.

H2 Strategies: Continue to hold previous long positions. Those without positions or with appropriate positions can consider establishing long positions below $3,100. Medium to short-term investors should primarily trade with a bias towards considerable fluctuations with an upward bias.

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